Trump the Godfather of Armenia-Azerbaijan Agreement

Who cannot but rejoice when two former antagonists express their intention to sign a peace agreement? This is especially true as the US supports Israel in its endless wars in the Middle East, as Natanyahu continues the annihilation of the Palestinians in Gaza, as Aliyev continues his policy of ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh and the erasure of last Armenian traces there, as Putin continues his war of destruction of Ukraine. In this context, the agreement signed between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, with the blessing of American President Donald Trump can only be celebrated: it is one step away from future wars, and a step closer to peace.

Who was that genius who predicted that Armenia could sign a favourable peace agreement with Azerbaijan, when it lost a war only in 2020, when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia and occupied its territories in 2022, when Azerbaijan attacked what remained of Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh and executed the most perfect ethnic cleansing in a matter of two weeks in September 2023? How could Armenia achieve a favourable peace when Azerbaijan in his wars of aggression enjoyed the military support of Israel and Turkey, of Pakistan and Syrian mercenaries? When Russia abandoned Armenia in the wars of 2020, 2022, and 2023, when Trump administration let the 2020 war happen without doing anything to stop it, when the Biden administration did the same in 2022 and especially during the ethnic cleansing in 2023? When the EU is interested in the price of its natural gas, much more than its preoccupation of human rights in Armenia or in Azerbaijan? Armenia is not only defeated militarily but also isolated diplomatically.

We can only rejoice for peace, and we can realistically expect a very unfavourable peace for Armenia.

What Is the Declaration About?

The complete agreement signed in Washington remains unknown. What was made public is a Declaration on two pages with seven points. The first point of the Declaration says that the sides “agreed upon text of the Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State relations” between Armenia and Azerbaijan and adds: “we acknowledge the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing” of a final agreement. In other words, in Washington there has been no advance compared to where the negotiations stood before.

Armenia did a major concession by agreeing to liquidate the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group which was mandated in 1992 to find a negotiated solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This concession is largely symbolic, as the OSCE Minsk Group is (was?) co-presided by USA, France and Russia, a structure that showed its incapacity to stop the 2020 war and the annihilation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

The most significant, and the most commented, was the fourth point on the establishment of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”, which should connect Azerbaijan proper with Nakhichevan exclave, “in the territory of the Republic of Armenia.” Point three of the Declaration underlines “the importance of the opening of communications between the two countries”, which might mean – still to be seen – the unblocking of Armenia’s communications via Azerbaijan. 

What the Declaration Does Not Say?

The Declaration does not say anything on the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh, its Armenian population and their right to return. Nor does it say anything about the several thousand Armenian cultural sites now under Azerbaijani control, including numerous medieval monastic complexes, that is the property of Armenian Apostolic Church.

Nor does it say anything about the fate of territories of the Republic of Armenia occupied by Azerbaijan since 2021, including strategic heights and river sources. 

The Declaration is silent about the fact that Azerbaijan keeps numerous Armenian hostages since the 2020 war and during the ethnic cleansing of Karabakh in 2023. Among them are numerous political and military leaders of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, as well as billionaire philanthropist Ruben Vardanyan.

Lastly, the agreement does not mention the fact that Armenia’s border with Turkey remains under blockade by the insistence of Azerbaijan, and when – or if – it will be opened following this “historic” Declaration, and now that everyone is on the side of “peace”.

A New Geopolitical Tango

While we are still curious to see more details on the “Trump Route”, the significance of the Declaration is that the US is geopolitically back to the South Caucasus for the third time since the collapse of the USSR: the first time was when Bill Clinton secured Caspian oil resources, and decided that the major pipeline would go through Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey, avoiding both Russia and Iran. The second time was under George Bush when Azerbaijan served as a logistic hub for the US war against the Taliban. Now, under Trump, is the US back to the Caucasus to control trade routes between Asian factories and European markets?

This American “win” has created several “losers”, the list is too long but let us enumerate them. The first is Russia, evidently. Putin’s ill-advised military adventure in Ukraine, which continues to absorb Russian resources – not to mention daily destroying Ukrainian lives – has weakened Russian influence in which once was Soviet Republics, or Russia’s “Near Abroad”. Iran is the other loser, paying the price of not having an independent policy on the South Caucasus for three decades, relying on Moscow to ensure the security of its northern borders, or being involved in ideological adventures in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, while ignoring its sensitive northern borders. Now, Iran might express its opposition against the “Trump Route”, but in practice cannot do much. The EU is the other loser, after decades of investing in the South Caucasus, and so much for a “truly geopolitical Commission” of Ursula von der Leyen.  Lastly, Turkey is excluded from the “Trump Route”, in spite of its “investments” in Azerbaijani military adventures in 2020 and giving Ilham Aliyev the keys to Karabakh victory. In a time of geopolitical changes in the Middle East, namely Israeli military expansion towards Syria where Turkish presence there is challenged by Israel, will a future American presence in the South Caucasus increase its sense of insecurity? And, will Ilham Aliyev’s choice of going bringing Americans to the South Caucasus increase the mistrust between Ankara and Baku?

Those countries cannot oppose Trump’s plans individually, but collectively they can. Over the long run, the US cannot oppose a coalition bringing together Russia with Iran and possibly Turkey. Remember, only in November 2020 Karabakh war ceasefire declaration, in its nineth point said that the communication routes between Armenia and Azerbaijan should be opened, and the security of the South Armenia routes would be secured by Russian Border Guards. Azerbaijan did not respect that ceasefire agreement, attacked Armenia and Karabakh, Russia did not respect its engagement for the safety of Karabakh Armenians and permitted their ethnic cleansing. Who knows what will happen to this region, say in 2030, only five years from now?

Future Taking Shape

The key to decode future developments might be in two bilateral documents of cooperation signed separately by Armenia and Azerbaijan with the US, next to the declaration. Azerbaijan received energy cooperation between its state oil monopoly SOCAR and US ExxonMobil. This comes in a period when Azerbaijani oil output is in rapid decline, from its peak 1 million barrel per day (bpd) in 2010, to 580’000 bpd in 2024, and needs serious investments to keep its current production. Armenia signed an agreement where the US government approved technology transfers for semiconductors and artificial intelligence centre. While Azerbaijani economic model seems frozen in the past, will Armenia find its way towards modernization, and turn its failures and suffering into a better future?