Armenia is on the critical verge
One of the groundbreaking incidents of this week is proclamations of Prime Minister Paşinyan, made on Monday, 18th March. As known, there is no progression in terms of peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We also do not know the level of accuracy in terms of dubbing this duration as “Peace Talks”; because president of Azerbaijan Aliyev continues to use an intimidating manner. At least, he referred to the term “cleansing” in his Nevruz message.
Azerbaijan inofficially demands the Zengezur Corridor located in Armenian territory and also offically demands four villages located on the Armenia border. Armenia is determined about Zengeur Corridor. “This is Armenian territory and we cannot let it get out of our control.”
The four village issue is little more complex. Azerbaijan was proclaiming that peace settlement duration will not continue, unless these villages were handed over. Prime Minister of Armenia Paşinyan called on these villages at the beginning of the week and declared that if the territory is not handed over, Azerbaijan will assault “at the weekend”.
Paşinyan’s making this remarkable statement is not an unexpected circumstance. It is already stated that Azerbaijan is in a novel preparation period to assault for a while. We can also monitor this through Turkish press; nationalist journalists are setting down Armenia’s constructing a heap in the territory to guard the Zengeur Corridor. This is generally a method tracked earlier on Azerbaijan’s assults. The community is being prepared for war by the news from the desk referring that Armenia ,which is in defense condition since 2020 and also almost completely lost its battle competency, is getting ready for “assault”.
Anyways, the situation of these four village is distinct as we mentioned. Independed agencies in Armenia state that these villages were taken after the First Karabakh War. In short, these territories is not cells generated by the USSR’s cunning.
Paşinyan strived to elucidate this situation to frontier villages. “If we do not hand back, war will begin. Our mission is circumvention of the war.”
However, it is apparent that this will not be a smooth operation. Objectors already started grumbling. Maybe the diaspora will take offence, but they do not possess public backing as before. Also the community is resented for sure.
This can be seen from afar: Maybe Paşinyan is sacrificing four villages mentioned to rescue Zengezur. Because against the war machine genererated by Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia is lonely and weak. As all you know, Russia is not beside of Armenia anymore; moreover, it is against it.
There are riveting advances for sure. Armenia-EU relations are increasingly advancing. Full membership is still far away; nevertheless, each opportunity to affiliate is being utilized. Both sides stress their “affiliation intentions”. At least analyzing whether the EU wants Armenia? This is such an infinitesimal prospect that does not require pondering.
Under the present conditions, Armenia lacks knowledge about what actions it can take when confronting Russia. Because the Southern Caucasus is a territory filled with ambiguity and from now on Azerbaijan will utilize even an infinitesimal opportunity for a novel assault, this is obvious. Like the famous case, if wolf made up its mind to eat sheep…
Visitation of the General Secretary of Nato Stoltenberg to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia in this atmosphere was peculiar. Even if Stoltenberg made so-called statements, this visitation being within the earshot of Russia is rather intriguing. Probably Moscow is not content with this situation, yet the issue of the Ukraine keeps Putin so occupied that he could not take advance of his lastest triumph. In brief, we can not make speculations about Armenia in the long run. As for Turkey, it monitors all of these incidents by rubbing its hands in glee.
(Translation: Deniz Kaya)
